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21-11-2024
- The Japanese Yen strengthens against the USD, though it lacks bullish conviction amid BoJ uncertainty.
- The upbeat market mood and elevated US bond yield might contribute to capping the lower-yielding JPY.
- Traders look at Thursday's US macro data and the Fed speaks ahead of Japan’s National CPI on Friday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) adds to its modest intraday gains, dragging the USD/JPY pair to a fresh daily low, around mid-154.00s heading into the European session on Thursday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda did not comment on monetary policy, though left the door open for another interest rate hike as soon as next month. This, along with persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict, turn out to be key factors underpinning the safe-haven JPY amid intervention fears.
Any further JPY appreciation, however, seems elusive amid a positive risk tone and rising US Treasury bond yields. Investors now seem convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies would boost inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow its rate-cutting cycle. This continues to act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and favors the US Dollar (USD) bulls, warranting caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the lower-yielding JPY and any further decline for the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen strengthens further after BoJ Ueda's remarks, though it lacks follow-through
- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said this Thursday that the central bank decides its monetary policy meeting by meeting on the basis of information that becomes available.
- Investors are now pricing in an even chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike and an on-hold decision at the final BoJ policy meeting of this year on December 18-19.
- According to mediate reports, the economic package proposed by Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa is expected to be around ¥21.9 trillion.
- Comments from Russian and US officials eased market concerns about the onset of a nuclear war, denting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.
- US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies could potentially stoke inflation and slow the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
- Furthermore, Fed policymakers' cautious remarks on further policy easing remain supportive of rising US Treasury bond yields and a bullish US Dollar.
- Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, noted on Wednesday that the central bank might get forced into a pause on interest rate cuts if inflation progress slows down.
- Separately, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that the progress on inflation appears to have stalled and that the central bank should pursue a cautious approach.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that more rate cuts are needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly.
- New York Fed President John Williams, in a Barron’s interview published today, said that he sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further.
- Traders now look to the US macro data for some impetus ahead of speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members later during the North Amerian session.
- The focus, however, remains on Japan's National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be among the factors that the BoJ will scrutinize at its next meeting.
USD/JPY bulls have the upper hand while above the 100-period SMA on 4-hour chart
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been showing some resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, suggesting that any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 154.65-154.60 region. This should help limit the downside near the 154.00 mark (200-period SMA). The said support should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might expose the weekly swing low, around the 153.25 area.
On the flip side, the Asian session peak, around the 155.40 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could make a fresh attempt to reclaim the 156.00 mark. Some follow-through buying could lift spot prices towards retesting the multi-month top, around the 156.75 region touched last Friday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Disclaimer: The information on this blog is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading involves high risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We do not guarantee the accuracy of the content and are not liable for any losses. Articles are sourced from FxStreet, and we do not take responsibility for any inaccuracies or opinions expressed.
